高空西北气流下铜仁东部特大暴雨的预报分析及思考          下载免费PDF全文

徐大红  胡萍  杨群  李习瑾 《中低纬山地气象》2022,46(2):9-17

利用贵州省预报业务常规、地面自动站加密观测资料、NCEP/FNL1°×1°再分析资料、业务数值预报模式,分析2020年6月29日铜仁市东部高空西北气流影响下的特大暴雨环境场特征、地面中小尺度场特征以及3家数值预报模式检验,初步分析产生此次特大暴雨的可能成因是在副高东南退、东北冷涡槽后高空西北气流维持、低层冷平流下传西输、地面辐合维持增强为涡旋、地面东路弱冷空气侵入、能量锋区斜压性增强;短临监测发现雷达回波有列车效应、低层辐合高层辐散的共轭配置、中层气旋式辐合;初步得出了西北气流影响下弱天气尺度环境场的铜仁市东部暴雨的预报着眼点。  相似文献   

The Record-breaking Mei-yu in 2020 and Associated Atmospheric Circulation and Tropical SST Anomalies※     

Yihui DING  Yunyun LIU  Zeng-Zhen HU 《大气科学进展》2021,38(12):1980-1993

The record-breaking mei-yu in the Yangtze-Huaihe River valley (YHRV) in 2020 was characterized by an early onset, a delayed retreat, a long duration, a wide meridional rainbelt, abundant precipitation, and frequent heavy rainstorm processes. It is noted that the East Asian monsoon circulation system presented a significant quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) during the mei-yu season of 2020 that was associated with the onset and retreat of mei-yu, a northward shift and stagnation of the rainbelt, and the occurrence and persistence of heavy rainstorm processes. Correspondingly, during the mei-yu season, the monsoon circulation subsystems, including the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), the upper-level East Asian westerly jet, and the low-level southwesterly jet, experienced periodic oscillations linked with the QBWO. Most notably, the repeated establishment of a large southerly center, with relatively stable latitude, led to moisture convergence and ascent which was observed to develop repeatedly. This was accompanied by a long-term duration of the mei-yu rainfall in the YHRV and frequent occurrences of rainstorm processes. Moreover, two blocking highs were present in the middle to high latitudes over Eurasia, and a trough along the East Asian coast was also active, which allowed cold air intrusions to move southward through the northwestern and/or northeastern paths. The cold air frequently merged with the warm and moist air from the low latitudes resulting in low-level convergence over the YHRV. The persistent warming in the tropical Indian Ocean is found to be an important external contributor to an EAP/PJ-like teleconnection pattern over East Asia along with an intensified and southerly displaced WPSH, which was observed to be favorable for excessive rainfall over YHRV.  相似文献   

The Seasonal Prediction of the Exceptional Yangtze River Rainfall in Summer 2020     

Chaofan LI  Riyu LU  Nick DUNSTONE  Adam A.SCAIFE  Philip E.BETT  Fei ZHENG 《大气科学进展》2021,38(12):2055-2066

During June and July of 2020, the Yangtze River basin suffered from extreme mei-yu rainfall and catastrophic flooding. This study explores the seasonal predictability and associated dynamical causes for this extreme Yangtze River rainfall event, based on forecasts from the Met Office GloSea5 operational forecast system. The forecasts successfully predicted above-average rainfall over the Yangtze River basin, which arose from the successful reproduction of the anomalous western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH). Our results indicate that both the Indian Ocean warm sea surface temperature (SST) and local WNP SST gradient were responsible for the westward extension of the WNPSH, and the forecasts captured these tropical signals well. We explore extratropical drivers but find a large model spread among the forecast members regarding the meridional displacements of the East Asian mid-latitude westerly jet (EAJ). The forecast members with an evident southward displacement of the EAJ favored more extreme Yangtze River rainfall. However, the forecast Yangtze River rainfall anomaly was weaker compared to that was observed and no member showed such strong rainfall. In observations, the EAJ displayed an evident acceleration in summer 2020, which could lead to a significant wind convergence in the lower troposphere around the Yangtze River basin, and favor more mei-yu rainfall. The model forecast failed to satisfactorily reproduce these processes. This difference implies that the observed enhancement of the EAJ intensity gave a large boost to the Yangtze River rainfall, hindering a better forecast of the intensity of the event and disaster mitigation.  相似文献   

Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Database Created by the China Meteorological Administration   总被引：19，自引：0，他引：19  

Xiaoqin LU  Hui YU  Ming YING  Bingke ZHAO  Shuai ZHANG  Limin LIN  Lina BAI  Rijin WAN 《大气科学进展》2021,38(4):690-699

This paper describes the access to, and the content, characteristics, and potential applications of the tropical cyclone(TC) database that is maintained and actively developed by the China Meteorological Administration, with the aim of facilitating its use in scientific research and operational services. This database records data relating to all TCs that have passed through the western North Pacific(WNP) and South China Sea(SCS) since 1949. TC data collection has expanded over recent decades via continuous TC monitoring using remote sensing and specialized field detection techniques,allowing collation of a multi-source TC database for the WNP and SCS that covers a long period, with wide coverage and many observational elements. This database now comprises a wide variety of information related to TCs, such as historical or real-time locations(i.e., best track and landfall), intensity, dynamic and thermal structures, wind strengths, precipitation amounts, and frequency. This database will support ongoing research into the processes and patterns associated with TC climatic activity and TC forecasting.  相似文献   

Interdecadal Change in the Interannual Variation of the Western Edge of theWestern North Pacific Subtropical High During Early Summer and the Influenceof Tropical Sea Surface Temperature     

詹鸿宇  陈锐丹  蓝铭 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2022,28(1):57-70

This study reveals that the interannual variability of the western edge of the western North Pacific (WNP) subtropical high (WNPSH) in early summer experienced an interdecadal decrease around 1990. Correspondingly, the zonal movement of the WNPSH and the zonal extension of the high-pressure anomaly over the WNP (WNPHA) in abnormal years possess smaller ranges after 1990. The different influences of the tropical SSTAs are important for this interdecadal change, which exhibit slow El Ni?o decaying pattern before 1990 while rapid transformation from El Ni?o to La Ni?a after 1990. The early summer tropical SSTAs and the relevant atmospheric circulation anomalies present obvious interdecadal differences. Before 1990, the warm SSTAs over the northern Indian Ocean and southern South China Sea favor the WNPHA through eastward-propagating Kelvin wave and meridional-vertical circulation, respectively. Meanwhile, the warm SSTA over the tropical central Pacific induces anomalous ascent to its northwest through the Gill response, which could strengthen the anomalous descent over the WNP through meridional-vertical circulation and further favor the eastward extension of the WNPHA to central Pacific. After 1990, the warm SSTAs over the Maritime Continent and northern Indian Ocean cause the WNPHA through meridional-vertical and zonal-vertical circulation, respectively. Overall, the anomalous warm SSTs and ascent and the resultant anomalous descent over the WNP are located more westward and southward after 1990 than before 1990. Consequently, the WNPHA features narrower zonal range and less eastward extension after 1990, corresponding to the interdecadal decease in the interannual variability of the western edge of the WNPSH. On the other hand, the dominant oscillation period of ENSO experienced an interdecadal reduction around 1990, contributing to the change of the El Ni?o SSTA associated with the anomalous WNPSH from slow decaying type to rapid transformation type.  相似文献   

商丹断裂带(河南段)构造变形特征及其找矿意义          下载免费PDF全文

薛艳  韩天成  陶威  易志强  马洪勇  黄向东 《地质找矿论丛》2021,36(3):257-264

商丹断裂带是一条多期次活动的大型断裂带,区域上也是大型金属矿的赋存带,对金属矿产具有重要的控制作用。文章以商丹断裂带(河南段)为研究对象,在基于孔沟至寨根一带构造剖面的宏观特征和显微构造特征解析的基础上,对研究区控矿构造和机理提出了新的认识。综合研究表明,商丹断裂带(河南段)具多期活动特征,整体呈现"正花状构造"样式。分析方解石机械双晶、矿物动态重结晶及变质矿物组合等显微构造显示,断裂带以韧性变形为主,两侧地层以韧性和脆性变形叠加为特征。区内变质变形温度以绿片岩相、中低温为主,局部可达角闪岩相。早期的韧性剪切活动控制本区金矿的总体控矿界面,晚期的构造活动形成的韧-脆性破碎带对先期形成的矿床进行改造、富集、最终定位,主断裂两侧的次级韧-脆性构造带是未来寻找金矿的有利部位。  相似文献   

论中国国家公园地质考察与评价——以浙江丽水百山祖国家公园为例     

李玉辉  王志国  毛烨峰  朱浙辉  陈林  李春忠  李鑫  孟耀 《地质论评》2021,67(4):67050002-67050002

鉴于保护地调查评价历史与目标,国家公园地质考察评价基准是地质学关于地球的“时间、空间、演化”知识的发现路径,既识别国家公园候选地的国家符合性地质事件,又识别国家公园自然性、独特性、优美性、多样性、整体性的地质机制,提供国家公园最重要的自然生态系统与自然景观保育管理的地质学支撑。浙江丽水百山祖国家公园符合性的地质事件是公园发现的4.0~4.2 Ga冥古宙陆核物质的锆石晶体、中生代岛弧陆盆火山酸性火山岩系列和从流纹岩山岭到花岗岩—变质岩谷底的“峰—岭—丘—谷（盆）”的亚热带滨海山地地貌结构,地貌结构发育演化是百山祖公园最重要的自然生态系统、区域性流域水源地、独特山水景观的形成基础。保护百祖山公园地貌结构和过程的完整性与真实性是确保其重要自然生态系统自然演化和生态服务产品持续供给的基础。  相似文献   

SIMULATION OF TROPICAL CYCLONES OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AND LANDFALLING IN CHINA BY REGCM4     

吴婕  高学杰 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2019,25(4):437-447

This study evaluates the performance of the regional climate model RegCM4 in simulating tropical cyclone (TC) activities over the Western North Pacific (WNP) and their landfalling in China. The model is driven by ERA-Interim boundary conditions at a grid spacing of 25 km, with the simulation period as 1991–2010. Results show that RegCM4 performs well in capturing the main structural features of observed TCs, and in simulating the genesis number and annual cycle of the genesis. The model reproduces the general pattern of the observed TC tracks and occurrence frequency. However, significant underestimation of the occurrence frequency as well as the TC intensity is found. Number of the landfalling TCs over China is also much less than the observed. Bias of the model in reproducing the large-scale circulation pattern and steering flow may contribute to the underestimated landfalling TC numbers.  相似文献   

华北雨季开始早晚与大气环流和海表温度异常的关系   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

于晓澄  赵俊虎  杨柳  支蓉  封国林 《大气科学》2019,43(1):107-118

本文利用国家气候中心的1961~2016年华北雨季监测资料、美国国家环境预报中心/大气研究中心（NCEP/NCAR）的大气再分析资料、NOAA海表温度资料,分析了华北雨季开始早晚的气候特征,然后利用合成分析、回归分析等方法,研究了华北雨季开始早晚与大气环流系统和关键区域海表温度的关系。结果表明,56 a来华北雨季开始最早在7月6日,最晚在8月10日,1961~2016年华北雨季开始平均日期是7月18日。华北雨季开始时间具有显著的年际变化,但雨季发生早晚的长期变化趋势不太明显。华北雨季开始早晚与西太平洋副热带高压（简称副高）、东亚副热带西风急流、东亚夏季风等环流系统的活动关系密切,当对流层高层副热带西风急流建立偏早偏强,中层西太平洋副高第二次北跳偏早,低层东亚夏季风北进提前时,华北雨季开始偏早,反之华北雨季开始偏晚。华北雨季开始早晚与春、夏季热带印度洋、赤道中东太平洋海表温度关系显著且稳定,当Ni?o3.4指数和热带印度洋全区海表温度一致模态（IOBW）为正值时,贝加尔湖大陆高压偏强,副高偏强偏南,东亚夏季风偏弱,导致华北雨季开始偏晚;当海表温度指数为负值时,则华北雨季开始偏早。  相似文献   

Seesaw Pattern of Rainfall Anomalies between the Tropical Western North Pacific and Central Southern China during Late Summer     

Xinyu LI  Riyu LU 《大气科学进展》2019,36(3):261-270

It is well known that suppressed convection in the tropical western North Pacific(WNP) induces an anticyclonic anomaly,and this anticyclonic anomaly results in more rainfall along the East Asian rain band through more water vapor transport during summer, as well as early and middle summer. However, the present results indicate that during late summer(from mid-August to the beginning of September), the anomalous anticyclone leads to more rainfall over central southern China(CSC), a region quite different from preceding periods. The uniqueness of late summer is found to be related to the dramatic change in climatological monsoon flows: southerlies over southern China during early and middle summer but easterlies during late summer. Therefore, the anomalous anticyclone, which shows a southerly anomaly over southern China, enhances monsoonal southerlies and induces more rainfall along the rain band during early and middle summer. During late summer,however, the anomalous anticyclone reflects a complicated change in monsoon flows: it changes the path, rather than the intensity, of monsoon flows. Specifically, during late summers of suppressed convection in the tropical WNP, southerlies dominate from the South China Sea to southern China, and during late summers of enhanced convection, northeasterlies dominate from the East China Sea to southern China, causing more and less rainfall in CSC, respectively.  相似文献